moore's law

Moore's Law is the observation by Gordon Moore (1965) that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years, driving the semiconductor industry's roadmap for decades. Original paper: Moore observed component count doubling annually, later revised to every two years (1975). Mechanism: achieved through dimensional scaling—smaller transistors, thinner oxides, finer lithography—enabling more transistors in same area. Historical validation: transistor counts grew from ~2,300 (Intel 4004, 1971) to >100 billion (modern GPUs/accelerators). Scaling enablers by era: (1) Dennard scaling era (1970s-2005)—voltage and dimensions scaled together; (2) FinFET era (2012-present)—3D transistor structure continued density scaling; (3) EUV era (2019-present)—shorter wavelength enabled finer patterning; (4) GAA/nanosheet era (2024+)—gate-all-around transistors for continued scaling. Economic dimension: Moore's second law—fab construction cost doubles every ~4 years (now $20B+ for leading edge). Current status: transistor density scaling continues but pace slowing; cost per transistor no longer decreasing at historical rate. Challenges: physical limits (atomic scale features), power density limits, lithography complexity, design complexity, exponential cost increases. Beyond Moore: (1) More-than-Moore—integrate diverse functions (sensors, RF, power); (2) Heterogeneous integration—chiplet-based scaling; (3) New compute paradigms—neuromorphic, quantum. Industry impact: Moore's Law drove ~$600B semiconductor industry, transformed computing, communications, and virtually every aspect of modern life. While pure dimensional scaling approaches physical limits, innovation continues through architectural and integration advances.